Project description

Prediction of Land Use and Transport changes due to Open borders - a modelling framework for the Vienna - Bratislava metropolitan region

(Prediction of Land Use and Transport changes due to Open borders - a modelling framework for the Vienna - Bratislava metropolitan region)

Aerial view of the study area (Google Earth)

Abstract

The PLUTO project is based on an integration of the projects "Economic Benefits of Coordinating Spatial and Transport Planning of the Cities of Vienna and Bratislava" and "Disaggregated Growth Model for the Vienna-Bratislava Metropolitan Area" submitted by Paul Pfaffenbichler and Elissavet Pontikakis for the 2006 Chamber of Commerce Award. Both projects deal with the modelling of the effects of measures and projects in the Vienna - Bratislava conurbation. The models used, the integrated dynamic land use and transport model MARS and a cellular automata model of the corridor of the S7 rapid transit line, work at different spatial aggregation levels. Their combination enables numerous synergies with regard to the questions that can be analysed and the data procurement.

In the first step, the data requirements and the interfaces between the two models are defined. Based on this, the additionally required data is collected and the models are set up and calibrated. In the second step, the large-scale effects of transport and spatial planning in the Vienna-Bratislava capital region are analysed with the help of the MARS model. The main focus is on the question of quantifying the economic advantages and disadvantages of different cooperation strategies. For this purpose, traffic volume, job and population migration within the region are forecast against the background of different framework conditions (cooperation - competition). The results of the second work step also form the framework and an essential input in work step 3, the detailed modelling of the corridor of the S7 rapid transit line by means of a disaggregated Cellular Automata Model. This model will be used to predict the detailed development of land use in the corridor. A main result of steps 2 and 3 will be the temporal-spatial representation of various indicators such as population or employment figures in animated GIS maps.

Economic relevance

Due to Slovakia's accession to the EU and the associated long-term fall of all trade barriers on the one hand and the geographical proximity on the other, a growing together of the Vienna - Bratislava region is inevitable. In this bipolar situation there is a fear that Vienna could lose economic power to Bratislava. The primary goal of the project is to identify suitable cooperation strategies that will bring economic benefits to both cities. The results can be used to view existing and planned cooperations in a broader context and to make optimal use of them. The demand from business-related bodies for more intensive coordination between the two cities can be supported by this work vis-à-vis politicians. The tools developed in this project can help businesses optimise their location decisions.

Publications

• P. Pfaffenbichler, R. Haller, E. Pontikakis: "Wechselwirkungen zwischen Flächennutzung und Verkehr in einem dynamischen Umfeld - ein Modellsystem der bipolaren Hauptstadtregion Wien - Bratislava (PDF)"; Vortrag: REAL CORP 2007 - To Plan Is Not Enough, Tech Gate Vienna; 20.05.2007 - 23.05.2007; in: "Strategien, Konzepte, Pläne, Projekte und ihre erfolgreiche Umsetzung in Stadt-, Regional- und Immobilienentwicklung", (2007), ISBN 978-39502139-2-8; 11 S.
• P. Pfaffenbichler, R. Haller, E. Pontikakis, G. Emberger: "Prediction of Land Use and Transport Changes in Dynamic Environments - Modelling the Bipolar Vienna - Bratislava Metropolitan Region"; Vortrag: 10th International Scientific Conference MOBILITA '07 - Sustainable Mobility in Urban Areas, Bratislava/SK; 24.05.2007 - 25.05.2007; in: "Conference Proceedings", (2007), ISBN 978-80-227-2649-8; S. 219 - 225.
• P. Pfaffenbichler, R. Haller, E. Pontikakis:: "Prediction of Land Use and Transport Changes in a Highly Dynamic Environment - A Modelling Framework for the Bipolar Vienna - Bratislava Metropolitan Region";
  Vortrag: CUPUM 2007 (10th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management), Iguassu Falls, Paranà/Brazil; 11.07.2007 - 13.07.2007; in: "Conference Proceedings", (2007), ISBN 978-85-85205-77-5; Paper-Nr. 223, 12 S.

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Acknowledgement

Thanks to the Vienna Chamber of Commerce, which made the project PLUTO (Prediction of Land Use and Transport changes due to Open borders - a modelling framework for the Vienna - Bratislava metropolitan region) possible by awarding the Vienna Chamber of Commerce Prize 2006.