We host different speakers at our Economic Theory & Policy Seminar. 

Upcoming topics and speakers will be posted below.

24. September 2024, 16:00 until 17:30

Theory & Policy Seminar / William Branch (UC Irvine) / Identifying the Impact of Inflation Expectations

Seminar

William Branch will give a talk at our Economic Theory and Policy Seminar.

William Branch, opens an external URL in a new window (University of California, Irvine)

"Identifying the Impact of Inflation Expectations"

Individuals form inflation expectations differently based on their demographics and locations. Consequently, different demographic groups respond differently to sectoral price changes, a fact that we exploit to identify the inflationary impact of expectations. Our instrument combines national expectations of specific groups with these groups’ share in regional populations. We find that a one-percentagepoint rise in the expected rate of inflation increases (regional) inflation by 60 basis points. Interestingly, long-run expectations– say, over 5 to 10 years– don’t seem to matter much. The estimates are most robust for a particular demographic: younger, married individuals holding at least a high school diploma. Their expectations mainly influence the prices of non-durable goods.

Calendar entry

Event location

TU Wien, Freihaus
1040 Vienna
Wiedner Hauptstr. 8-10, Seminarroom: DB04 yellow (4th floor, yellow area)

 

Organiser

ECON
Julia Hutter
julia.hutter@tuwien.ac.at

 

Public

Yes

 

Entrance fee

No

 

Registration required

No

Theory & Policy Seminar / William Branch (UC Irvine) / Identifying the Impact of Inflation Expectations

William Branch will give a talk at our Economic Theory and Policy Seminar.

William Branch, opens an external URL in a new window (University of California, Irvine)

"Identifying the Impact of Inflation Expectations"

Individuals form inflation expectations differently based on their demographics and locations. Consequently, different demographic groups respond differently to sectoral price changes, a fact that we exploit to identify the inflationary impact of expectations. Our instrument combines national expectations of specific groups with these groups’ share in regional populations. We find that a one-percentagepoint rise in the expected rate of inflation increases (regional) inflation by 60 basis points. Interestingly, long-run expectations– say, over 5 to 10 years– don’t seem to matter much. The estimates are most robust for a particular demographic: younger, married individuals holding at least a high school diploma. Their expectations mainly influence the prices of non-durable goods.